Avoiding the Demise of Mankind

We are at an age of rapidly advancing technology with new innovations that make life easier. Our generation has been introduced to extraordinary new things like hybrid cars, being able to connect with people around the world through social networking, smart phones with more computing power than the NASA's Apollo mission  to the moon in 1969, and the notorious "selfie". Yet among all of these unbelievable technologies, the future is becoming bleak, full of higher food prices, deteriorating land and water resources, rapidly growing starving population, and geopolitical turmoil for food and land. In the book, Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, Lester R. Brown outlines the current problems we face and the potential option, or Plan B alternative, that needs to be undertaken in descriptive detail.

The first 3 chapters of Plan B analyze how countries today are not properly utilizing the resources which is leading to a detrimental effect of the world's future and how the population growth and extreme climate change has astounding effects on our resources. By studying the demise of past civilizations one common similarity between them  can be attributed to shrinking food supplies, as pointed out by Brown. It is our generations duty to avoid this fate, but if we continue along with the same business as usual, this fate will certainly become a reality. Reversing this failing food situation can be separated into 3 focuses: Soil erosion, falling water tables, and rising carbon emissions. Soil erosion is largely due to the over deforestation. The trees not only help prevent excess of erosion, but also contribute to preventing floods. After the Yangtze River Basin in China experienced over flooding in 1998, Beijing announced a ban on tree cutting in  the basin. Deforestation has also been observed to lead to deserts like the Sahara creeping over crop fields and same with the deserts in the middle east and northern China. The United States experiences similar takeover of vital farmland, but rather in the form of suburban sprawl in order to compensate for growing populations.

Overpumping of our Earth's aquifers to irrigate crops is a huge problem in the world and many aquifers cannot be naturally replenished. In cases like Saudi Arabia overpumping its fossil aquifer (non-replenishable) to being almost depleted, they will likely phase out wheat production entirely by 2016.

A more interesting interpretation of the World economy today is Browns comparison of it to a Ponzi Scheme. Which takes payments from a broad base of investors and uses these to pay off returns. This is largely related to the fact that are demands on the natural system exceeds the yield with which it can produce and leads to an inevitable depletion of our natural assets. As stated by Paul Hawken, author of Blessed Unrest, "At present we are stealing the future, selling it in the present, and calling it gross domestic product. We can just as easily have an economy that is based on healing the future instead of stealing it. We can either create assets for the future or take the assets of the future. One is called restoration and the other exploitation." What Hawken is trying to express that if business continues as usual, this Ponzi Scheme-ish economy will surely collapse and our children and grandchildren of future generations will essentially be paying for it. A more organized plan focused on the long term rather than short term outcomes will increase the longevity of our civilization and hopefully lead to replenished natural assets.

The plan B goals outlined by Brown are aimed to follow a new path "where food security can be restored and civilization can be sustained."

Some components to be achieved by 2020 include:

• cutting net carbon dioxide emissions by 80%
• Stabilizing population at 8 billion or lower
• Eradicating poverty
• And restoring the earths natural systems (Its soils, aquifers, forests, grasslands, and fisheries.)

All four components are independent, but they cannot likely be achieved without another to be successful. For example, eradicating poverty will be impossible without and stable growth in population. A transition is need from economies power by coal, oil and natural gas to cleaner renewable energy like wind, solar and geothermal energy. Making this transition is no easy task. A gradual switch to these greener energy sources can combat the growing CO2 emissions that plague our ozone and in turn melt our glaciers.

Believe in global warming or not, its undeniable that our global temperature is rising. These rising temperatures fuel stronger storms and increase crop-withering heat waves. The massive glaciers of Greenland and West Antarctica hold enough water to raise the sea levels 12 meters. That would essentially wipe out the coastal cities home to over 600 million people (That would be more than enough to cover Florida). Along with northern glaciers melting, even the tallest mountains are losing ica and snow which is vital to the surrounding rivers and crop fields. Scientists of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) concluded that, "temperature increases due to global warming will make it increasingly difficult to feed Earth's growing population."

Plan B is a ambitious approach to the problems we face, but it cannot be achieved without enough support. In a world ruled by the economy and politics, we need economists and political leaders who think and act like ecologists.